Analyst Predicts Nintendo Switch 2 Sales for 2025

Gaming analyst Mat Piscatella forecasts robust US sales for the Nintendo Switch 2, projecting approximately 4.3 million units sold in 2025, contingent on a first-half launch. This prediction mirrors the original Switch's impressive 4.8 million unit sales by the end of 2017, a figure that exceeded initial projections and necessitated air-freighting additional consoles to meet demand. The hope is that Nintendo has learned from past supply chain challenges.

While anticipation for the Switch 2 is palpable, translating online buzz into concrete sales remains a challenge. Several factors will influence its 2025 performance, including launch timing, hardware quality, and the competitiveness of its game library. A pre-summer launch, potentially timed around Japan's Golden Week, is speculated to maximize sales momentum.

Piscatella's analysis suggests the Switch 2 will capture roughly one-third of the US console market (excluding handheld PCs), despite potential supply constraints. While acknowledging the possibility of initial shortages, he remains optimistic about Nintendo's preparedness, speculating on potential stockpiling to avoid a repeat of the original Switch's launch issues.

Despite the Switch 2's projected strong performance, Piscatella anticipates the PlayStation 5 retaining its position as the top-selling console in the US. The highly anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto 6 in 2025 could significantly bolster PS5 sales. Ultimately, the Switch 2's success hinges on its hardware capabilities and the appeal of its launch titles. The level of excitement surrounding the console is undeniable, but its ability to outpace the PS5 remains to be seen.